The Start of a New Cycle for Multifamily?

After years of low investment activity, the pressure to act is outweighing the ability to wait. Multifamily loan delinquencies are up, as are “hard” CMBS loan maturities that have no remaining extension options, both of which suggest a higher likelihood of distressed sales. While multifamily distress will lead to some select sales and buying opportunities throughout the year, investment activity may increase more meaningfully due to an increasing number of multifamily investments that are approaching or exceeding their intended hold period. The current multifamily investment environment is one of caution and discipline, but signs of early-cycle growth are undeniable.

National YoY Rent Growth Average, November 2025*

-0.25%↑

* Based on data from RealPage, Zillow, Yardi Matrix, Apartment List, and CoStar

National Occupancy Average, November 2025*

93.33%↓

* Based on data from RealPage, Yardi Matrix, Apartment List, and CoStar

10-Year Treasury

4.08% ↓

7-Year Treasury

3.85% ↓

5-Year Treasury

3.65% ↓

SOFR

3.66% ↑

Federal Funds Rate

3.64% –

Multifamily Capital Markets

A Pressure to Act, Not Just Wait: Equity’s Quiet Comeback to CRE (Cushman & Wakefield)

Apartment Transactions Trend Up for Third Consecutive Quarter (RealPage)

Q4 2025 Capital Markets: Setting the Stage for a Stronger 2026 (Colliers)

Q1 2026 Cap Rate Survey: Multifamily Cap Rates Are Compressing (Newmark)

Housing Affordability, Spending, and Wage Growth

Where Are Apartment Rents Most Affordable? (Apartment List)

Economic Commentary: Consumer Spending Faces Sustainability Challenges (Northmarq)

How Wage Growth Is Reinforcing CRE (Marcus & Millichap)

Delinquency Rates Normalize While Credit Card and Student Loan Stress Worsens (NAHB)

Home Price Expectations Survey: Up by 1.8% by Year-End 2026 (Fannie Mae)

Maturities, Delinquencies, and Distress

Multifamily Loan Delinquencies Are Rising — And Losses Are Following (CRED iQ)

CMBS Hard Maturities Outlook: The real question isn’t “how much is maturing?” It’s “how much can actually refinance?” (Trepp)

CRE Lending and Investment: Loan Maturity Opportunities, More Liquidity, Selective Risk (Berkadia)

Will Wall Of Multifamily Debt Maturities Create Opportunity? (Marcus & Millichap)

Home and Office Real Estate

Student housing preleasing starts off strong, but rents decline (Yardi Matrix)

Home Flipping Market Set to Expand in 2026 (John Burns Research and Consulting)

Office values start rebound (Yardi Matrix)

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