Fed Under Pressure: Should Investors Worry?
News of increased pressure on the Federal Reserve has ensured that uncertainty will persist in the United States economy. In the multifamily market, however, operators and asset managers continue to prove the sector’s resilience and long-term viability. That said, short-term performance declines in high-supply markets could create opportunities to invest in distressed properties if interest rate benchmarks like the 10-year Treasury rate tick up amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve. Most assessments preclude the possibility of a dramatic wave of CRE distress, yet distress and delinquency rates have persistently increased.
National YoY Rent Growth Average, November 2025*
-0.23%
* Based on data from RealPage, Zillow, Yardi Matrix, Apartment List, and CoStar
National Occupancy Average, November 2025*
93.5%
* Based on data from RealPage, Yardi Matrix, Apartment List, and CoStar
3.64%↓
3.64%↓
Multifamily, the Nation, and the Economy
Job Growth Slowed as 2025 Ended (NAHB)
Trump’s $200 Billion Mortgage Buying Spree ‘Unlikely’ To Move Rates Much (Realtor.com)
IRS Crackdown on Real Estate Funds, Private Equity Stalls (GlobeSt)
Headwinds and Tailwinds for Multifamily and CRE in 2026
CRE Trends to Watch: Tailwinds for multifamily demand win out in 2026. (Cushman & Wakefield)
U.S. Commercial Real Estate in 2026: “A year of transition rather than acceleration” (Newmark)
2026 Multifamily Forecast: “As Deliveries Taper, Apartment Fundamentals to Shift to Pre-Pandemic Norms” (Berkadia)
2026 Investment Risk Analysis: Regional Differences and an Uneven Recovery (Yardi Matrix)
Affordable Housing and the Apartment Market
December 2025 Rent Report: A Cold Month for Rent Growth (Apartment List)
Home Price Index Shows Year-over-Year Increase of 3.0 Percent in Q4 2025 (Fannie Mae)
Home Prices Grew 1% YoY Last November, Growth Forecast at 4.3% for 2026 (Cotality)
Rent Cuts Deepen in 4th Quarter as Demand Volumes Return to Historic Norms (RealPage)
Government Assistance and Housing Affordability (The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies)
Interest Rates, Debt, and Commercial Real Estate Distress
CMBS Distress Rate Climbs to 11.70% in December 2025 Amid Ongoing Refinancing Pressures (CRED iQ)
Distress Hit Differently in this Cycle and Debt Funds May Be the Reason (MSCI)
You’ve Weaned Yourself Off Interest Rate Cuts. Now It’s Time To Sweat (Bisnow)
2026 Predictions: A Sorting Year for Commercial Real Estate (Trepp)
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell nor a solicitation to purchase interests in J and G Capital, LLC (the “Company”) or any affiliate or assign nor any other securities. This newsletter is not financial advice, and the and newsletter does not purport to contain all information that is or could be material to an investor in deciding whether to make an investment in the Company. An investment in the Company is subject to a variety of significant risks and considerations that are detailed in the Company’s Subscription Agreement, Disclosure of Investment Risks, Operating Agreement, and related documents (the “Offering Documents”). Prospective investors are advised to review the Offering Documents and consult their own legal, financial, and tax advisors regarding any potential investment in the Company. Subscriptions for an investment in the Company will not be accepted from any prospective investor unless and until such prospective investor has received and fully reviewed a copy of the Offering Documents and has executed and delivered all documents required in connection with such investment. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.